Archive for July, 2013

GDP Growth Accelerates in Second Quarter

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 1.7 percent in the second quarter of 2013 after increasing 1.1 percent in the first quarter, according to the “advance” estimate released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

731_gdp_1GDP highlights
The second-quarter acceleration in GDP reflected the following:
• An upturn in business investment, mainly in structures.
• An upturn in exports of goods; civilian aircraft and parts turned up, and nonautomotive consumer goods accelerated.

These contributions to the pick-up in economic growth were partly offset by an acceleration in imports and decelerations in inventory investment and in consumer spending.

Personal income and personal saving
Real disposable personal income—personal income adjusted for taxes and inflation—rose 3.4 percent in the second quarter after falling 8.2 percent in the first quarter.

Dividend income as well as wages and salaries increased notably in the second quarter, following large declines in the first quarter. The first-quarter declines reflected accelerated payments (mainly dividends) in the fourth quarter of 2012. Also, contributions for government social insurance (a subtraction when calculating personal income) slowed in the second quarter, reflecting the expiration of the “payroll tax holiday” in the first quarter.

Personal saving as a percent of disposable personal income in the second quarter was 4.5 percent, compared with 4.0 percent in the first quarter.

731_gdp_2Prices
Prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents rose 0.3 percent in the second quarter after rising 1.2 percent in the first quarter. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 0.8 percent after increasing 1.4 percent.

Comprehensive revision
BEA released its 2013 comprehensive revision of the national income and product accounts, which incorporates new source data and a host of improvements. The revisions did not change the overall picture of the economy.

For 2002–2012, the average annual GDP growth rate was 1.8 percent, compared with 1.6 percent in the previous estimates. For 2012, GDP growth was revised up to 2.8 percent from 2.2 percent.

For more on GDP, read the full report.

Changes to How the U.S. Economy is Measured Roll Out July 31

A pharmaceutical company develops a new cancer drug. A Hollywood studio creates a box-office blockbuster.  A song writer records a new hit.  On July 31, BEA will begin including the amount of money businesses invest in the production of such intellectual property as part of gross domestic product (GDP).

Why?

Art for GDP Changes BlogThe changes reflect updated international guidelines for national economic accounting—the United Nations’ System of National Accounts 2008 (SNA).   It’s important that economic measures keep pace with a changing global economy and that GDP statistics from different countries use a common set of guidelines for comparability.

Australia and Canada already implemented some of the changes outlined in the 2008 SNA. The United States is taking steps later this month. Europe is expected to act next year.

Expenditures for research and development (R&D) and for entertainment, literary, and artistic originals have many of the characteristics of other fixed assets—ownership rights can be established, the assets are long-lasting, and they are used repeatedly in the production process. Thus, the SNA recommends that expenditures on the production of these types of intangible assets, or intellectual property, be treated as fixed investment. That’s consistent with the way we treat the production of tangible assets like a new drill press in a factory.

Art 2 for GDP Changes BlogCurrently, we count spending on R&D and on the creation of entertainment, literary, and artistic originals as intermediate inputs used up during the production of other goods and services. As a result, the contribution of these important innovative activities to economic growth and productivity is difficult to measure. Right now, these investments don’t show up directly in GDP, although sales of drugs and copies of DVDs, CDs, Blu-ray discs and digital downloads are counted.

By recognizing expenditures on R&D and on entertainment, literary, and artistic originals as investment, the contribution of these components to economic growth can be measured.

BEA already includes some intangible assets as fixed investment, notably software development and mineral exploration.  The new expenditures for R&D and for entertainment, literary, and artistic originals will be grouped with expenditures for software into a new investment category called “intellectual property products.”

Pension Plans

BEA will also improve the way we count defined benefit pension plans in the GDP accounts.

Unlike defined contribution plans like 401(k)s, defined benefit pension plans provide a benefit to employees based on factors such as length of service and salary history.

Employers provide these promised benefits to employees through a pension fund. Employers, and in some cases employees, make cash contributions to the fund. In addition, the fund holds financial assets, earns income and capital gains on those assets, and pays out benefits to retirees and beneficiaries.

On July 31, we will switch from a cash accounting method to an accrual accounting method to measure the transactions of defined benefit pension plans. That means we will count the benefits as employees earn them, rather than when employers actually make cash payments to pension plans.

Accrual accounting better reflects the retirement benefits an employee earns while working and improves our measures of compensation by more closely aligning the accrual of retirement benefits with the employee’s work. Accrual accounting is also consistent with business accounting standards, and the SNA recommends that countries adopt this accounting method.

The problem with the current cash accounting approach is that employers sometimes make sporadic cash contributions to the pension funds. This results in volatility in BEA’s measure of compensation that does not accurately reflect the relatively smooth manner in which benefits are earned by the employee.

The new measures for pension income and the expanded coverage of intellectual property are two of the major changes BEA is making to how we measure GDP.  To find out more, visit our Web page on the comprehensive revision to GDP.

Comprehensive Revisions to NIPA: Reconsidering Treatment of R&D and Entertainment

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its comprehensive revision of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) next week.  Among other important changes to estimates will be how the statistical agency treats research and development (R&D) and calculates entertainment in measuring gross domestic product (GDP).  The revision generally occurs every 5 years.  Revisions to GDP estimates are not unusual; in fact, as better source data become available, BEA revises the NIPA series, including GDP, three times every year: for 2 consecutive months following each release, and annually.  In addition, every 5 years, BEA comprehensively revises the data, in part tied to the updates of BEA’s input-output tables, which are based on the Census Bureau’s quinquennial Economic Census.

As part of this process, BEA often revises the underlying NIPA methods and definitions.  On July 31, BEA will broaden the definition of GDP regarding R&D expenditures, which have long been viewed as similar to fixed assets—that is, an asset with defined ownership rights that is long-lasting and used repeatedly in the production process.  BEA estimates that capitalizing R&D would have had a $300 billion impact on the economy in 2007.  This change follows years of research, which included publishing a new framework for measuring intangible innovation and the development of better source data to measure accurately the amount of R&D activity.  With this latest revision, BEA will also begin to treat entertainment, literary, and artistic originals, which are designed to generate many copies and can be usefully employed for more than 1 year, as investment rather than expenditures.  BEA will be making other NIPA changes, too:
•Incorporating the benchmark input-output accounts for 2007, which are derived from the Economic Census and set to be released on their own later this year.
•Adding an accrual treatment of defined-benefit pension plans.
•Making statistical changes including improved measures of commercial banking services.
•Changing the reference year for price indices and inflation-adjusted series from 2005 to 2009.
•Changing intellectual property tables and adding new pension tables.

All told, this month’s NIPA revisions will be “comprehensive,” indeed!