Archive Page 5

Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Led Growth in the Fourth Quarter Gross Domestic Product by Industry

Nondurable goods manufacturing was the leading contributor to U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2014. Both private goods- and services-producing sectors contributed to the increase, while the government sector decreased. Overall, 15 of 22 industry groups contributed to the 2.2 percent increase in real GDP.

GDP by industry April 23

  • Durable goods manufacturing increased 0.3 percent following an increase of 7.0 percent, while nondurable goods increased 9.7 percent, after decreasing 6.6 percent.
  • Finance and insurance decreased 7.7 percent after increasing 21.2 percent.
  • Real estate and rental leasing increased 1.5 percent, after increasing 4.4 percent.

Value added April 23

For more information, read the full report.

BEA Tool Allows Businesses to Estimate the Economic Impact of Disasters

When a disaster strikes, understanding the economic impact on the affected community is a key to developing a recoveryrims-cover-final plan. BEA’s regional input-output modeling, RIMS II, provides disaster recovery officials a tool to model the impact on an affected community.

For instance, if a hurricane forces the temporary closure of oil refineries, fisheries or ports in a region, the disruption could affect the overall regional economy. RIMS II provides local officials with a cost-effective way to estimate that impact on the overall regional economy.

RIMS II is already widely used in both the public and private sectors for estimating the economic impact of an event, construction project, or other change in a local economy. In the public sector, for example, state and local government officials use BEA’s regional modeling system to estimate the regional impacts of military base closings. State transportation departments use it to estimate the regional impacts of airport construction and expansion. In the private sector,  business people, analysts and consultants use BEA’s regional model to estimate the regional impacts of a variety of projects, such as the development of shopping malls and sports stadiums.

To effectively use BEA’s regional modeling system, users must provide detailed information on the initial changes in output, earnings, or employment in each region and industry affected by a disaster. For instance, a disruption may lead to a lengthy layoff of 1,500 workers at a local port. The multipliers can then be used to estimate the total impact of the disaster on regional output, earnings and employment.

Earlier this year, BEA announced some changes to the regional input-output modeling system.  The updated model will continue to produce regional “multipliers” that can be used in economic impact studies to estimate the total economic impact of a project on a region and will still be updated with new regional information on an annual basis.  The main difference is the underlying national information used in the model will be updated on a less frequent basis.  The important regional information used in the model will still be updated on an annual basis.

This is just one way BEA’s products support a key pillar of the Department of Commerce’s strategic plan. That is – ensuring “communities and businesses have the necessary information, products and services to prepare for and prosper in a changing environment.”

Timelier, more accurate data: the Commerce Department’s statistical agencies deliver on promise of better data for better decision-making

The Economics and Statistics Administration’s family of statistical agencies – the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and U.S. Census Bureau – are announcing an important new initiative that will lead to an acceleration of key trade data as well as improved accuracy of the advance estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is widely considered the most important measure of the U.S. economy. Additionally, American businesses, policymakers, and the public have made clear – and we have listened – that there is an enormous appetite for timelier, high quality trade data to improve decisions and better support our interconnected global economy.

The Census Bureau’s new advanced trade release will arrive approximately one week ahead of the monthly report “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services,” also known as the FT900 and will provide more timely statistics regarding the export and import of goods and supplies.

The first release is set for July 30, 2015, at 8:30 a.m. and will feature advance statistics for June 2015. The new advance trade release will focus on goods and will list them by “end-use” category, such as consumer goods, capital goods or industrial supplies. It will include both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data, and will be available on Census’s website: www.census.gov/trade.

This “flash” estimate of trade in goods will provide BEA with more accurate data for their Advance Estimate of GDP and will reduce GDP revisions over time.

I am excited the Commerce Department has committed to making our data even more useful to our customers in the public and private sectors, and this initiative – and the collaboration of ESA’s premier statistical agencies – is one of many ways we are making good on our promise to transform the Department’s data capabilities, a key pillar in our Open for Business Agenda.

For more information on the advance trade release, please call Michael C. Cook, Sr, 301-763-4083 at the Census Bureau. For more information about its potential impact on GDP, please call Jeannine Aversa, 202-606-2649 at BEA.