Posts Tagged 'BEA'



BEA Tool Allows Businesses to Estimate the Economic Impact of Disasters

When a disaster strikes, understanding the economic impact on the affected community is a key to developing a recoveryrims-cover-final plan. BEA’s regional input-output modeling, RIMS II, provides disaster recovery officials a tool to model the impact on an affected community.

For instance, if a hurricane forces the temporary closure of oil refineries, fisheries or ports in a region, the disruption could affect the overall regional economy. RIMS II provides local officials with a cost-effective way to estimate that impact on the overall regional economy.

RIMS II is already widely used in both the public and private sectors for estimating the economic impact of an event, construction project, or other change in a local economy. In the public sector, for example, state and local government officials use BEA’s regional modeling system to estimate the regional impacts of military base closings. State transportation departments use it to estimate the regional impacts of airport construction and expansion. In the private sector,  business people, analysts and consultants use BEA’s regional model to estimate the regional impacts of a variety of projects, such as the development of shopping malls and sports stadiums.

To effectively use BEA’s regional modeling system, users must provide detailed information on the initial changes in output, earnings, or employment in each region and industry affected by a disaster. For instance, a disruption may lead to a lengthy layoff of 1,500 workers at a local port. The multipliers can then be used to estimate the total impact of the disaster on regional output, earnings and employment.

Earlier this year, BEA announced some changes to the regional input-output modeling system.  The updated model will continue to produce regional “multipliers” that can be used in economic impact studies to estimate the total economic impact of a project on a region and will still be updated with new regional information on an annual basis.  The main difference is the underlying national information used in the model will be updated on a less frequent basis.  The important regional information used in the model will still be updated on an annual basis.

This is just one way BEA’s products support a key pillar of the Department of Commerce’s strategic plan. That is – ensuring “communities and businesses have the necessary information, products and services to prepare for and prosper in a changing environment.”

February 2015 Trade Gap is $35.4 Billion

The U.S. monthly international trade deficit decreased in February 2015 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $42.7 billion in January (revised) to $35.4 billion in February, as imports decreased more than exports. The previously published January deficit was $41.8 billion. The goods deficit decreased $7.4 billion from January to $55.2 billion in February. The services surplus decreased $0.1 billion from January to $19.7 billion in February.

April 2nd chart

Exports
Exports of goods and services decreased $3.0 billion, or 1.6 percent, in February to $186.2 billion. Exports of goods decreased $2.9 billion and exports of services decreased $0.1 billion.

  • The decrease in exports of goods reflected decreases in capital goods ($1.7 billion), in industrial supplies and materials ($1.4 billion), and in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.1 billion) that were partly offset by an increase in consumer goods ($1.3 billion) was partly offsetting.
  • The decrease in exports of services reflected decreases in transport ($0.2 billion), which includes freight and port services and passenger fares, and in financial services ($0.1 billion) that were partly offset by increases in other business services ($0.1 billion) and in travel (for all purposes including education) ($0.1 billion).

Imports
Imports of goods and services decreased $10.2 billion, or 4.4 percent, in February to $221.7 billion. Imports of goods decreased $10.3 billion while imports of services increased less than $0.1 billion.

  • The decrease in imports of goods mostly reflected decreases in industrial supplies and materials ($4.4 billion), in capital goods ($2.6 billion), and in automotive vehicles, parts and engines ($1.7 billion).
  • The increase in imports of services reflected an increase in travel (for all purposes including education) ($0.1 billion) that was mostly offset by a decrease in transport ($0.1 billion).

Goods by geographic area (seasonally adjusted, Census basis)

  • The goods deficit with Japan decreased from $6.5 billion in January to $4.3 billion in February. Exports increased $0.1 billion to $5.4 billion and imports decreased $2.1 billion to $9.7 billion.
  • The goods deficit with China decreased from $29.3 billion in January to $27.3 billion in February. Exports decreased $1.5 billion to $9.0 billion and imports decreased $3.5 billion to $36.3 billion.
  • The balance with OPEC countries shifted from a deficit of $1.2 billion in January to a surplus of $0.3 billion in February. Exports increased $0.3 billion to $6.4 billion and imports decreased $1.3 billion to $6.0 billion.

For more information, read the full report.

Value of U.S. Liabilities Increased More than U.S. Assets in 2014

The U.S. net international investment position was -$6,915.3 billion (preliminary) at the end of 2014 as the value of U.S. liabilities exceeded the value of U.S. assets. At the end of 2013, the net position was -$5,383.0 billion.

march 31 part 2

  • The $1,532.3 billion decrease in the net position from the end of 2013 to the end of 2014 reflected a $2,515.6 billion increase in the value of U.S. liabilities that exceeded a $983.4 billion increase in the value of U.S. assets.
  • The decrease in the net position reflected 1) the depreciation of major foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar that lowered the value of most U.S. assets 2) the increase in U.S. equity prices that increased at a higher rate than foreign equity prices.
  • The U.S. net international investment position decreased 28.5 percent from the end of 2013 to the end of 2014, compared with a 17.6 percent decrease from the end of 2012 to the end of 2013.
  • U.S. assets were $24,693.2 billion at the end of 2014 compared with $23,709.8 billion at the end of 2013.
  • U.S. liabilities were $31,608.5 billion at the end of 2014 compared with $29,092.8 billion at the end of 2013.

For more, see the full report.