Posts Tagged 'GDP by industry'



New BEA Data Proves Valuable for Retail Industry

Jack_KleinhenzGuest blog post by Jack Kleinhenz, Ph.D., Chief Economist, National Retail Federation

NRF is the world’s largest retail trade association, representing discount and department stores, home goods and specialty stores, Main Street merchants, grocers, wholesalers, chain restaurants and Internet retailers from the United States and more than 45 countries.

The National Retail Federation closely monitors economic conditions in order to gauge the health of the overall industry and the consumers who represent nearly 70% of the national GDP. By having quarterly updates on the economic performance of 22 sectors, we will be better served when representing retailers and their needs as it relates to economic forecasts, labor markets and job reports, and much more.

Having higher frequency GDP data by industry will be extremely valuable in assessing current economic conditions and shaping economic forecasts. The new data series should provide reliable information on the changes in growth for specific industries, and offer insights into whether the growth is well-above, well-below, or average relative to overall GDP growth. In the past, the annual data could not provide perspective on the fits and starts in marketplace activity, so I am encouraged that a more detailed picture is now more accessible.

No modeling effort can accurately capture the dynamics and complexity of the U.S. economy nor consider all the variables. The difference now is that we don’t have to wait a year to find out how different industries are performing and contributing to the United States’ economic growth. This data will add to our toolkit for forecasting both short and long-term trends. Additionally, these quarterly reports will provide a better barometer of when an industry might be poised for a surge or a drop – otherwise known as turning points – that can possibly be a signal for the direction of the larger U.S. economy.

All in all, the access to this new statistical product will add to more informed decisions by all who need reliable and timely data on the performance of the economy.

New Quarterly Statistics Detail Industries’ Economic Performance

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released today – for the first time – gross domestic product (GDP) by industry for 22 industry sectors on a quarterly basis. These new statistics fill an important gap in U.S. federal economic statistics by providing timely information on how individual industries contributed to U.S. economic growth in a given quarter.

  • Real GDP increased 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013, with both the private goods- and services- producing sectors contributing to the increase. Overall, 15 out of 22 industry groups contributed to economic growth. The leading contributors to the increase were nondurable-goods manufacturing; professional, scientific and technical services; and wholesale trade.

QuarterlyGDP1_4_25_14

  • Growth in real GDP in the fourth quarter decelerated from 4.1 percent in the third to 2.6 percent in the fourth. The deceleration reflected a slowdown in the private services-producing sector and a larger decrease in the government sector that was partly offset by a pickup in growth in the goods-producing sector.
  • Overall, 17 out of 22 industry groups contributed to the slowdown in real GDP growth. The leading contributors to the slowdown were real estate, rental, and leasing; construction; and retail trade.

QuarterlyGDP2_4_25_14 Read the full report

New Statistics Will Provide More Timely Snapshot of How Industries are Performing

Want to know how much manufacturing contributed to U.S. economic growth in a given quarter? How about educational services?

For the first time, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will soon start producing on a regular basis quarterly estimates of economic activity generated by 22 industries.

The first quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) by industry report will be released April 25 and will provide information on how these industries fared in the fourth quarter of 2013 as well as how they performed in previous quarters back to the first quarter of 2005. The report will also provide annual statistics for 2013. Previously, BEA published GDP by industry statistics only on an annual basis, so businesses and policymakers had a much longer wait for such information.

The new quarterly statistics will provide a different look at quarterly economic growth.  For instance, on February 28, BEA reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 2.4 percent pace in the fourth quarter of 2013. While that GDP report provides a lot of crucial information, the new quarterly GDP by industry report will shed light on whether most industries contributed to the nation’s economic growth or whether just a handful of industries accounted for most of it.

The new quarterly statistics also will serve as a better barometer for potential turning points in the U.S. economy and give businesses and policymakers a better understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the overall economy. For instance, in 2005—during the run up to the great recession—the U.S. economy grew 3.4 percent. Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing accounted for 1.3 percentage points of that growth—more than a third. Providing regular, timely updates on how economic growth is distributed across the industries can help policymakers and business leaders identify potential trouble spots in the economy.

BEA officials will discuss these new GDP by industry statistics at a data user conference March 11 at BEA.

These new estimates are just one way that BEA is innovating to better measure the 21st Century economy. This year, BEA also will introduce real (inflation-adjusted) estimates of personal income for states and metropolitan areas, along with prototype estimates of quarterly GDP by state and annual consumer spending by state. Providing businesses and individuals with new data tools like these is a priority of the Commerce Department’s “Open for Business Agenda.”