Posts Tagged 'GDP'



Broad Growth Across States in 2014

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  • Real GDP increased in 48 states and the District of Columbia in 2014. Leading industry contributors were professional, scientific, and technical services; nondurable goods manufacturing; and real estate and rental and leasing.
  • Professional, scientific, and technical services was the largest contributor to U.S. real GDP by state growth in 2014. This industry contributed to real GDP growth in 46 states and the District of Columbia. It was a large contributor to growth in three states – California, Massachusetts, and Utah.
  • Nondurable goods manufacturing was the leading contributor to growth in the Great Lakes region and made a substantial contribution to growth in Louisiana and Montana.
  • Real estate and rental and leasing contributed to real GDP growth in 32 states and the District of Columbia.
  • Mining was the leading contributor to growth in the five fastest growing states – North Dakota, Texas, West Virginia, Wyoming, and Colorado.
  • In contrast, agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting subtracted from real GDP growth in six of eight BEA regions and 39 states in 2014.
  • Real GDP decreased in Alaska and Mississippi in 2014. Alaska’s decrease was primarily due to a decline in mining while the decrease in Mississippi was mainly due to a decline in construction.
  • Per capita real GDP ranged from a high of $66,160 in Alaska to a low of $31,551 in Mississippi. Per capita real GDP for the U.S. was $49,649.

For more information, read the full report.

First-Quarter GDP Revised Down: “Second” Estimate of GDP

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2015, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The growth rate was revised down 0.9 percentage point from the “advance” estimate released in April. In the fourth quarter of 2014, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

GDP highlightsq2q real gdp may 29
The first-quarter decline in real GDP reflected declines in the following:

  • Goods exports, notably of capital goods and of autos and parts.
  • Business investment, notably in mining exploration, shafts, and wells.
  • State and local government spending.

Offsetting these contributions to the decrease in first-quarter GDP:

  • Consumer spending on services increased, notably on health care and on housing and utilities.
  • Nonfarm inventory investment also rose, notably in wholesale trade durable goods-related industries.

Revisions
The percent change in first-quarter real GDP was revised down, mainly reflecting an upward revision to imports and downward revisions to inventory investment and to consumer spending. Offsetting these revisions, residential investment was revised up. For more information, see the technical note.

Corporate profitsq2q corp may29
Corporate profits decreased 5.9 percent at a quarterly rate in the first quarter after decreasing 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014.

  • Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased 7.7 percent after increasing 1.4 percent.
  • Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased 0.6 percent after decreasing 2.7 percent.
  • Profits from the rest of the world decreased 6.0 percent after decreasing 8.8 percent.

Over the last 4 quarters, corporate profits increased 3.7 percent.

For more information, read the full report.

BEA Works to Mitigate Potential Sources of Residual Seasonality in GDP

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is working on a multi-pronged action plan to improve its estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) by identifying and mitigating potential sources of “residual” seasonality. That’s when seasonal patterns remain in data even after they are adjusted for seasonal variations.

Each spring, BEA conducts an extensive review–receiving updated seasonally adjusted data from the agencies that supply us with data used in our calculation of GDP. Most of the data the feeds into GDP is seasonally adjusted by the source agency, not BEA. At the same time, BEA examines its own seasonal factors for those series that BEA seasonally adjusts itself. All that work takes place in preparation for BEA’s annual revision to GDP and its major components, which will be released on July 30.

As a result of this ongoing work, BEA is aware of the potential for residual seasonality in GDP and its components, and the agency is looking for ways to minimize this phenomenon.

• One of the areas we’re currently reviewing is possible residual seasonality in measures of federal government defense services spending. Initial research suggests that the first and fourth quarter growth rates are lower on average than those of the third and second quarters. BEA is developing methods for addressing what it has found.
 • Time frame to implement: Improvement will take place with the release of second quarter GDP on July 30. Period covered: 2012, 2013, 2014, and forward.

• BEA also will begin adjusting certain inventory investment series that currently aren’t seasonally adjusted.
 • Time frame to implement: Improvement will take place with the release of second-quarter GDP on July 30. Period covered: 2012, 2013, 2014, and forward.

• Also as part of this year’s seasonal adjustment review, BEA is planning to seasonally adjust a number of series from the Census Bureau’s quarterly services survey that now have sufficient time spans to which seasonal adjustment techniques can be applied. Currently, these series are smoothed using a four-quarter moving average to attempt to smooth out seasonal trends in the data. While BEA’s review had not identified residual seasonality in the PCE services estimates, applying statistical seasonal adjustment techniques to these indicators will improve the accuracy of the underlying trends in PCE estimates.
 • Time frame to implement:  Improvement will take place with the release of second quarter GDP on July 30.  Period covered 2012, 2013, 2014, and forward.

• BEA will review all series entering the GDP calculations to identify, and where feasible, mitigate any residual seasonality within its existing seasonal adjustment methodologies.
 • Time frame to implement: Review will take place with the release of second-quarter GDP on July 30. Period covered: 2012, 2013, 2014, and forward.

• Longer term–beyond July 30–BEA will continue looking at components of GDP to determine if there are opportunities to improve seasonal adjustment methodologies.  Should BEA identify other areas of potential residual seasonality, BEA will develop methods to address these findings. If research suggests that residual seasonality originates with already seasonally adjusted source data, BEA will work alongside its source data agencies to determine the appropriate course of action.

Additional information will be available in an upcoming article in BEA’s Survey of Current Business that’s slated to be published in mid-June.