Archive for the 'BEA News' Category

GDP Update Finds Little Change in Economic Picture of Last 3 Years

GDP-Annual Update 2016 ChartThe Bureau of Economic Analysis released its annual update of GDP and related statistics today, adjusting its picture of U.S. economic activity during the past three years to reflect newly available data.

The broad outline of U.S. economic growth during these recovery years changed only modestly from what the Bureau of Economic Analysis had previously reported.

From 2012 to 2015, real GDP increased at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent, the updated estimates show. That’s 0.1 percentage point higher than previously published estimates.

For 2013, the percent change in real GDP was revised upward by 0.2 percentage point, due in part to stronger inventory investment and exports in the newer data. The GDP rate for 2014 was unchanged. The rate was revised up 0.2 percentage point for 2015, partly because of updates to state and local government spending and residential fixed investment.

BEA’s annual updates incorporate new and more comprehensive source data that weren’t available when earlier estimates for the same time periods were released.

This year’s update also improves seasonal adjustments for several GDP components. BEA is in the midst of a three-step plan to address the issue of “residual seasonality” in some data.

Seasonal adjustment smooths out fluctuations that occur at about the same time each year, such as holiday shopping or the wintertime decline in construction. That makes it easier to see other economic patterns in the data.

Because they were woven together with numerous updates and additions to source data, the effects of the seasonal adjustment changes alone can’t be isolated and quantified at this point.

Full results of the 2016 annual update are available on the “National” section of BEA’s website.

GDP Increases in Second Quarter

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 1.2 percent in the second quarter of 2016, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.8 percent (revised).

GDP highlightsGDP July 29
The second‐quarter increase in real GDP was more than accounted for by an increase in consumer spending. Spending on both nondurable and durable goods increased, as did spending on services, notably on housing and utilities and on health care.

The increase in consumer spending was partly offset by a decline in inventory investment. In fact, GDP less inventory investment (real final sales of domestic product) increased 2.4 percent in the second quarter.

Also partly offsetting contributions to real GDP growth, business investment declined, reflecting declines in structures and in equipment, and housing investment decreased.

Personal income and saving
Real disposable personal income—personal income adjusted for taxes and inflation—increased 1.2 percent in the second quarter after increasing 2.2 percent in the first quarter. Personal saving as a percent of disposable personal income was 5.5 percent in the second quarter, compared with 6.1 percent in the first quarter.

Annual update
BEA also released its 2016 annual update of the national income and product accounts, which updated most components from the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2016 based on newly available and revised source data. From the fourth quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2016, real GDP increased at an annual average rate of 2.2 percent, the same as previously published. For more information, see the technical note.

First‐quarter prices GDP2 July 29
Prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents increased 2.0 percent in the second quarter of 2016, after increasing 0.2 percent in the first quarter.

Food prices decreased in the second quarter, while energy prices increased.

Excluding food and energy, prices increased 1.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent in the first quarter.

For more information, read the full report.

Gross Domestic Product by State: First Quarter 2016

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 37 states and the District of Columbia in the first quarter of 2016, according to statistics on the geographic breakout of GDP released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  Real GDP by state growth, at an annual rate, ranged from 3.9 percent in Arkansas   to –11.4 percent in North Dakota.  Construction; health care and social assistance; and retail trade were the leading contributors to U.S. economic growth in the first quarter.

GDP by State July 27

  • Construction grew 9.0 percent in the first quarter of 2016—the eighth consecutive quarter of growth for this industry.  This industry contributed to growth in 47 states and the District of Columbia and 1.1 percentage points to the 1.7 percent growth in real GDP in Hawaii.
  • Health care and social assistance grew 3.8 percent in the first quarter.  This industry contributed to growth in every state and the District of Columbia.
  • Retail trade grew 4.8 percent in the first quarter.  This industry contributed to growth in 47 states and the District of Columbia and 0.59 percentage point to the 3.9 percent growth in Washington.

For more information, read the full report.


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