Archive for the 'BEA News' Category

State Personal Income: First Quarter 2018

State personal income increased 4.3 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter of 2018, after increasing 4.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017. Personal income increased in all states and the District of Columbia. The percent change in personal income across all states ranged from 7.4 percent in Washington to 2.0 percent in Idaho.

Personal Income June21

Presentation Change of State Quarterly Personal Income
Growth rates in personal income presented in this release are annualized. This represents a change in presentation from prior releases. Annualized growth rates show what the percent change in personal income would be if the quarterly rate continued for four quarters. This conforms the presentation of growth rates in state personal income with the release presentations of other BEA statistics and will allow data users to more easily compare growth in state personal income with other quarterly BEA statistics such as U.S. GDP, U.S. personal income and GDP by state. Quarterly personal income growth rates will continue to be available to data users in BEA’s interactive database.

  • Earnings increased 4.7 percent in the first quarter of 2018, after increasing 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017 and was the leading contributor to growth in most states, including the four fastest growing states – Washington, Utah, Delaware, and Kentucky.

For more information, read the full report.

U.S. Current-Account Deficit Increases in First Quarter 2018

The U.S. current-account deficit increased to $124.1 billion (preliminary) in the first quarter of 2018 from $116.1 billion (revised) in the fourth quarter of 2017. As a percentage of U.S. GDP, the deficit increased to 2.5 percent from 2.4 percent. The previously published current-account deficit for the fourth quarter was $128.2 billion.

Current Account

  • The deficit on international trade in goods increased to $220.5 billion from $212.4 billion as goods imports increased more than goods exports.
  • The surplus on international trade in services increased to $64.9 billion from $64.6 billion as services exports increased more than services imports.
  • The surplus on primary income decreased to $62.0 billion from $62.4 billion as primary income payments increased more than primary income receipts.
  • The deficit on secondary income (current transfers) decreased to $30.5 billion from $30.7 billion as secondary income payments decreased more than secondary income receipts.

Net U.S. borrowing from financial-account transactions was $180.6 billion in the first quarter, up from $31.3 billion in the fourth.

  • Net U.S. acquisition of financial assets excluding financial derivatives was $254.7 billion in the first quarter, up from $127.1 billion in the fourth.
  • Net U.S. incurrence of liabilities excluding financial derivatives was $464.1 billion in the first quarter, up from $159.2 billion in the fourth.
  • Net lending in financial derivatives other than reserves was $28.7 billion in the first quarter, up from $0.8 billion in the fourth.

For more information, read the full report.

 

BEA on Track to Implement Third Phase to Combat Potential for Residual Seasonality in GDP

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is on track to soon implement the third phase of a three-pronged plan to mitigate any potential for residual seasonality in gross domestic product.  That’s when seasonal patterns remain in the data even after they are adjusted for seasonal variations.

BEA laid out the plan in 2016, after conducting a painstaking component-by-component review of some 2,000 nominal data series included in GDP to look for possible sources of residual seasonality.

A significant factor that BEA’s review found occurred when seasonally adjusted monthly data were aggregated to quarterly values. Over the last several years, BEA has made great strides working closely with the Census Bureau and others that supply data for GDP to implement strategies for removing residual seasonality in source data. That collaborative work has been crucial because the vast majority of data feeding into GDP come to BEA already seasonally adjusted by the supplier of those data.

In late July, BEA will roll out additional improvements, implementing the third phase of its plan. Key items include:

  • Applying seasonal adjustment improvements to the entire GDP times series. (Annual figures stretch back to 1929 and quarterly figures back to 1947).
  • Publicly releasing estimates for GDP (and gross domestic income) that are not seasonally adjusted, including major components, for the years 2002 and forward. These not seasonally adjusted numbers will come out at the same time as BEA’s seasonally adjusted GDP statistics. This will give data users a new tool for evaluating the economy’s growth and will further enhance data transparency.
  • Expanding the number of years of data that are updated each summer. These annual updates have traditionally carried back a minimum of three years; now the update period will go back a minimum of five years. That should aid seasonal adjustment improvements going forward.

These improvements will debut on July 27, when BEA releases updated figures for GDP and its major components. The updated numbers will reflect the incorporation of data not previously available and methodological enhancements.  BEA does such an update each year. This year, though, BEA is conducting a “comprehensive” update, meaning the entire GDP time series is opened for the update. This typically happens every five years.


Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Archives