This is a guest blog by John H. Thompson, Director of U.S. Census Bureau
Later this month, the U.S. Census Bureau will release the first-ever Advance Economic Indicators Report. Last July, we began issuing the Advance Report: U.S. International Trade in Goods in order to release international trade data to the public as quickly as possible. Continuing our commitment to make our quality statistics as accessible and timely as possible, this new report will expand the advance report by including advance monthly retail and wholesale trade inventories for select aggregate levels in addition to the advance international trade data.
Business leaders, policymakers and other data users rely on Census Bureau statistics to make important decisions. These advance estimates not only give them earlier access to a “snapshot” of key economic data, but also provide more quality inputs for calculating our nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The new Advance Economic Indicators Reportwill allow the Bureau of Economic Analysis to make a more precise initial estimate of this major economic indicator, and potentially reduce the size of later revisions. When BEA began incorporating our advance trade report into the advance estimate of GDP last year, it reduced revisions to GDP, on average, by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points – or by $6 billion – on an annualized basis.
The Census Bureau is constantly looking for ways to improve your access to our statistics, and this new report is a great example of our dedication to releasing the timeliest, accurate and most trusted information about our nation’s economy. We will continue to identify other quality indicators that are suitable for acceleration to expand the Advance Economic Indicators Report.
The first Advance Economic Indicators Report will be available on July 28 at <www.census.gov/econ/indicators/index.html>.
Published June 28, 2016
BEA , BEA News , GDP , Real GDP
“Third” estimate of GDP
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2016, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The growth rate was 0.3 percentage point higher than the “second” estimate released last month. In the fourth quarter of 2015, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.
The first‐quarter increase in real GDP mainly reflected an increase in consumer spending on services. Spending on household services increased, notably on health care and on housing and utilities. Consumer spending on nondurable goods also increased. However, consumer spending on durable goods declined, notably on motor vehicles and parts.
In addition, housing investment, state and local government expenditures, and exports each increased.
These positive contributions to GDP growth were partially offset by the following:
- Business investment in equipment and in structures decreased.
- Farm and nonfarm private inventory investment declined.
- Federal government spending declined, notably on national defense spending.
The upward revision to real GDP growth reflected upward revisions to exports and to business investment, which were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. More information.
Corporate profits increased 1.8 percent at a quarterly rate in the first quarter of 2016 after decreasing 7.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015.
- Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased 6.4 percent after decreasing 10.2 percent.
- Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased 3.0 percent after decreasing 6.0 percent.
- Profits from the rest of the world decreased 7.2 percent after decreasing 1.7 percent.
Over the last 4 quarters, corporate profits decreased 4.3 percent.
For more information, read the full report.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 41 states and the District of Columbia in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to statistics on the geographic breakout of GDP released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real GDP by state growth, at an annual rate, ranged from 3.0 percent in Indiana to –3.4 percent in Wyoming. Information; construction; and professional, scientific, and technical services were the leading contributors to real U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter.
- The information industry group grew 10.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015. This industry contributed 0.50 percentage point to U.S. real GDP growth and contributed to growth in 49 states and the District of Columbia. This industry was the leading contributor to growth in 16 states and contributed 0.90 percentage point to real GDP growth in California.
- Construction grew 7.6 percent in the fourth quarter. This industry contributed 0.30 percentage point to U.S. real GDP growth and contributed to growth in 46 states and the District of Columbia. This industry contributed 1.02 percentage point to real GDP growth in Hawaii.
- Professional, scientific, and technical services grew 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter—the 11th consecutive quarter of growth for this industry. This industry contributed 0.28 percentage point to real GDP growth for the nation and contributed to growth in 48 states. This industry contributed 0.92 percentage point to real GDP growth in the District of Columbia.
For more information, read the full report.